Does Crime Matter?
Or rather, does it matter ENOUGH this November 8th?
“The administration of justice is the firmest pillar of government.” — George Washington
One month out, we ask: Will the crime issue actually move the needle this Election Day?
With the Republicans hammering the “soft on crime” angle and the Democrats hurriedly passing bills to vitiate that… these are the races that may answer that question.
NY Governor: Hochul v. Zeldin. Things have changed here in New York — Albany now decides New York City’s safety. New York had been the undisputed “safest big city in America” before Cuomo and the NYS legislature in Albany decided that had to be “reformed.”
Then Mayor de Blasio piled on with city-level initiatives like the infamous diaphragm law and reducing our jail bed count, woke prosecutors decided entire categories of the penal law no longer counted, the 2020 summer riots (in which hundreds of cops were injured) were treated as heroic by our media… and the city’s quality of life went exactly as any rational human would expect.
Now cops are retiring in droves, no recruits are lining up to replace them, and conditions on the street and in the subway are the worst this writer has ever seen, with menacing homeless everywhere.
New York City’s safety will be decided in Albany — and Hochul has proven herself not only feckless but quite possibly corrupt. Our own Chris Flanagan puts the case against Hochul together here, in a shocking roundup you won’t see elsewhere (really, you need to read this).
New York State has other cities in big trouble: Newburgh, Rochester, Albany itself. But the media is in NYC and the nation’s biggest population center is here. For the national conversation on crime, this race is the big one.
Illinois Governor: Pritzker v. Bailey. An important race due to two factors: Chicago’s murder rate and Illinois’ new Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today (“SAFE-T”) Act.
A lot of eyes are on the the SAFE-T Act, as its most controversial measure, no detention for nearly all arrestees, goes into effect on January 1, 2023. It was signed and advocated for by current Gov. Pritzker — who therefore bears significant responsibility for its results.
Aspects of the Act are already in place (for instance, changes to “use of force” standards), and a group of state’s attorneys have written about the pernicious effect the Act is already having. Some mayors agree. But advocates say these concerns are overblown.
Unlike New York’s “no cash bail” law, the Illinois law does allow for a judge to consider a danger standard. But it requires a hearing and, frankly, sounds like the sort of administrative boondoggle that will cause judges to default to releasing all but the worst-of-the-worst.
The success or failure of the SAFE-T Act may well lead to other states adopting similar standards. Stay tuned.
Meanwhile, even taking the last two “covid years” off the table (which were particularly bad), Chicago’s murder rate is outpacing 2019. Adjusted for population, Chicago’s numbers this year would be right there with New York’s worst of all time (1990). The early 1990’s numbers led to a mini-revolt in NYC, ushering in Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the "broken windows” era of policing. A terrified populace can be funny that way.
Pennsylvania Senate: Oz v. Fetterman. This writer sometimes uses “the pilot test” when deciding who should get a vote; that is, who would you rather have flying your plane?
In the Republican primary, McCormick was my pilot. But now in the general, with Oz the Republican, it seems an increasing number of Pennsylvanians feel the good doctor should be flying, as the race has narrowed to a statistical tie — and the wedge issue is public safety.
Oz has been hammering the crime issue, focusing on Fetterman’s role in pushing for clemency while leading the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons.
Recall: Philadelphia is in Pennsylvania. Yes, the city with Larry Krasner, possibly the nation’s most activist DA.
Many think control of the U.S. Senate will come down to this race. Which means: so will federal criminal justice policy (think: border control, fentanyl enforcement, etc). A true bellwether election.
Wisconsin Senate: Johnson v. Barnes. This race was considered a toss-up until recently, when Johnson began to focus on the public safety issue. A recent Johnson ad points to Barnes coming out against cash bail by featuring the grandmother of a child struck by a car during the Waukesha Christmas parade last year:
"Mandela Barnes supports no cash bail that puts criminals like Darrell Brooks back on the streets," the grandmother says. "He's more worried about criminals than victims."
That’ll leave a mark. (In fact it has, with Johnson now up in the polls).
Another crucial Senate race, for both parties.
Los Angeles Mayor: Caruso v. Bass. The nation’s second-most-populous urban area is beset with major crime and quality-of-life issues, especially homelessness. Both candidates are Democrats (Caruso is a former Republican), and while Bass has held a steady lead, recent polls show Caruso gaining ground to within the margin of error.
According to the L.A. Times, a recent poll found that
voters feel homelessness has an effect on their lives and believe the mayor is capable of doing something about the crisis. Among likely voters, 91% said that homelessness affects their life directly or indirectly.
Which suggests that whoever gains voter trust on this issue may have the edge.
Also helping Caruso: The fact that, as murders for the first half of 2022 hit a 15-year high and property crimes are rising, Bass recently had her home broken into and two handguns stolen. The thieves appear to have left cash and other valuables behind, making the entire event somewhat… murky.
Voters tend not to like murky. That said, Bass remains the favorite in this heavily Democratic city.
Nevada Governor: Lombardo v. Sisolak. This one is interesting because the Republican challenger, Joe Lombardo, is the Clark County Sheriff, and has made rising crime a central point-of-attack against incumbent Steve Sisolak. Lombardo has been a cop for 34 years, starting off in Vegas Metro, and he touts the fact that Clark County crime has dropped during his tenure, bucking national trends.
The Democrats were so worried about Lombardo in this race, they spent over $2 million in the Republican primary, hoping to elect someone else.
It didn’t work, and with 80% of Americans saying that they are worried about crime, Lombardo appears to have the edge. Still, the race is presently a statistical tie. As is always the case in a midterm, voter turnout will be the key.
And finally: The Year Of The Latina. That’s not hyperbole — a record 43 Republican Latina candidates ran for House seats this year, with 17 winning their primaries. The level of their success holds the potential to reshape Congress for years to come.
Candidates like Anna Paulina Luna (a likely winner in Florida); Yesli Vega (Virginia), Cassy Garcia (Texas), and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Oregon) show Latinas drifting from a Democrat party they feel no longer represent their values. And part of those values: public safety, for their families and themselves.
See here for a helpful roundup of why, if 2022 is indeed a “red wave,” Republican Latinas will be surfing it.
There are other important races, of course — really, any race that implicates one of our major city qualifies, as nearly all our big towns are sliding into the abyss. But the above cross-section will tell us much about what public safety will look like in the years ahead.
Let’s hope folks get out to the polls, so that we get a fair and accurate reading.
Bullets: Some quality of life snapshots here in NYC: In Nolita, the homeless want your dinner…. In historic Greenwich Village, NYC, an entire block held hostage by rowdies. (With the raise-the-age law, what can police do?)… One NYC neighborhood has had enough, and calls for “defunding the politicians”…. Some of the art coming out of the Iran protest movement (more on that later in the week) is quite striking:
(https://twitter.com/Melgratillustr)
And while we have yet to reach the end of 2022, I believe I can say that we have identified the Idiot of the Year. A nuance: this candidate is a former magistrate — meaning she was actually a judge at one point (!).
But forget her. If you want to see the real reason why 99% of cops join a police department, click below:
Until next time: be safe.