I Came, I Saw, Iran Away
or - Blinken's Iran Negotiation Strategy
Diplomat extraordinaire Anthony Blinken recently let it slip that Iran is a week or two away from producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon. That came upon us quickly and the corporate media didn’t blink an eye. The US government doesn’t appear to be jumping into action either. This seems like another fail for the Blinken brand of diplomacy – see Ukraine invasion, Afghan withdrawal, and Israeli-Palestinian War for other examples.
The production of fissile material is a precursor to nuclear power or nuclear weapons. Fissile material is the Plutonium-239 and other elements whose nucleus (nuclei?) can be split. The splitting of the nucleus creates the chain reaction necessary for nuclear power or weapons. Plutonium-239 can be created by reprocessing nuclear waste from a power plant. How that process works, I have no idea as I barely passed high school chemistry and physics was no walk in the park either.
As anyone would assume, Secretary of State Blinken immediately blamed the Trump Administration for the fact that Iran is one step closer to a nuclear weapon. As you may recall, Trump unilaterally withdrew from Obama’s Iran nuclear deal in 2018, ending the safeguards and delays that the agreement codified. We could not be confident that Trump made the right call regarding the deal – there are many variables and unknowns in that decision. But it seemed like the right call. Obama’s deal only delayed Iran’s nuclear program, it did not prohibit it.
But the following quote from Blinken quelled all doubts that it is the Obama/Biden/Blinken team that is to blame. "Instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, (Iran) is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that." At least a year away?! Who cares?! It is the fact that they are closing in on the capability to make a weapon that is the problem.
Iranians were conquering the known world in 550 BC. You have to be a half-wit to think they care about a few extra months. As Blinken negotiates futilely with Iran (as they have since 2021), they are working on their nuclear capability. Once they have the capability for a weapon, the negotiations will cease completely. Iran learned its lesson from Moammar Gaddafi. The Libyan strongman agreed to give up his chemical and nuclear weapons program. A few short years later, Obama was orchestrating his coup and eventual execution. That is not a good incentive for other countries to give up a weapons program.
We are not even sure Trump’s opinion on the deal mattered, as according to US and Israeli intelligence, Iran was violating the deal before the ink was dry by continuing work on their allegedly defunct AMAD Plan for developing nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran was “only” working on feasibility studies and technical competencies – sounds legit. It seems like the Iran nuclear deal was dead on arrival and Trump just pronounced the time of death.
Blinken and Biden (who gives no indication he knows anything about this) can play the blame game all they want. Election season is a good time to spread allegations of culpability. Whatever your opinion on the actions of the past administration, Blinken and Biden are running the show now. And judging from the current state of affairs, this team seems like a loser. It is entirely plausible – likely even – that Iran has been pulling the wool over our eyes since the beginning of the Obama Administration.
The negotiations on the Gaza peace deal are halting. This conflict has been going on for almost 10 months. Blinken claims that negotiations are on the “10-yard line” but Jake Sullivan demurs. Blinken (and Obama for that matter) always seem to have had a soft spot for Iran. He seems to trust team “Death to America”, for reasons unclear. First, releasing billions of dollars to them. Then allowing Iran apologist Robert Malley to set up his own Iranian spy ring inside the State Department. Finally allowing them to launch attacks through Hamas and the Houthis with no repercussions. All the while allowing their nuclear program to proceed unabated. One really has to wonder which side the State Department is on.
ROBERT MALLEY
Speaking of which, what ever happened to Anthony Blinken’s childhood friend, Robert Malley? We here at The Ops Desk called out the Biden Administration for their lack of transparency when it came to Malley’s status. The former Special Envoy to Iran was suspended and his clearance was revoked last year. Why is still a mystery, but he had unusual backchannel communications with Iran, and he hired several individuals who are likely Iranian agents with links to the Iran Experts Initiative.
The Biden Administration mislead congress as to Malley’s status. Despite his suspension, Malley landed a nice gig teaching at Princeton and Yale (it was either there or CNN– see Peter Strzok or Andrew McCabe). Despite rumors that the FBI is investigating Malley, we haven’t heard one word about what is going on with him. Is he getting arrested? Was it all a big misunderstanding? The usual Biden stonewall, just like with the current Secret Service fiasco. Omerta is alive and well in this administration.
GOING FORWARD
We will get more of the same regarding our Iranian concerns. Little information, little action, and a bad position for the United States. From the production of fissile material to the creation of a nuclear device only takes a few months. Will these clowns wait for the mushroom cloud before they get serious? It seems like they might. No action from Iran seems to engender anything resembling a strong response from the Biden Administration. Even the fact that the State Department learned that Iran has a contract out on Donald Trump did not stimulate any apparent reaction or even acknowledgement (insert conspiracy theory here).
Our prediction – Iran will keep the proxy war with Israel going until they have created a nuclear weapon (if they haven’t got one already). This will keep the Israelis back on their heels and out of Iranian airspace as the world judges their actions in Gaza. Blinken will keep buying the Iranians time with pointless negotiations until their devices are complete. Once they produce a bomb, the option of attacking Iran is off the table. The Iranians are probably racing against the clock to get their program finished before January 20th, 2025. Then Blinken and company will hand the next President an unmitigated disaster.
Or we can “hope” that Iran is just interested in nuclear power and not weapons. Blinken’s “negotiation” strategy seems more like surrender to the eventuality of a nuclear armed, expansionist, religious state controlling the Middle East. The “hope” plan seems like the bet that Blinken is all in on. We know the odds are not in his favor.
Thanks for reading The Ops Desk. Stay Safe!