Idaho -- The Three New Facts
And what they might mean to the task force
Happy Sunday all! Your humble narrator was again thrilled to be on-set yesterday with the dashing Lawrence Jones and the great crew over at Cross Country. And to be there for Lawrence’s birthday. (He’s 30, and says he “feels old.” Lawrence, I’m wearing socks older than that).
Tonight I will be appearing with one of the sharpest folks in the biz, Trey Gowdy, on his eponymous show. Trey was a state prosecutor, a federal prosecutor, a member of Congress, and now a killer television host (another underachiever). Greatly looking forward to it.
And please join me tomorrow morning on America’s Newsroom with the dynamic duo of news, Dana and Bill, where we will discuss the Viktor Bout case, from an angle you might not have heard before…. (Your narrator played a minor role in the Bout case, and will offer some insights…). I promise it’ll be of-interest. Hope you can make it.
Now: to business.
IDAHO: There is a concept in police and intelligence work known as “confirmation bias.” In short, it refers to the tendency for investigators to try to make the facts fit their theory — as opposed to the other way around.
Confirmation bias can be fatal to an investigation. We must go where the evidence leads, not where the theory leads.
That’s why I always caveat any speculation heavily (and confine my speculations to this forum).
So where does that leave us in Idaho?
We’ve got three new data points to crunch since last week: (1) The white car; (2) The open front door at 8:30 a.m; (3) The scream heard by a neighbor at 4:00 a.m.
The car: As I mentioned on-air last night, the willingness of the police to release a new data point — the car — suggests its significance. This is the first new hard data since the K-Bar knife.
The car also seems to point to the idea — discussed here before — that the rear parking lot could’ve played a role. As stated last time, that lot is secluded, and provides a perfect vantage into the second floor, through the sliding glass doors.
The front door: However, the open front door at 0830 hrs. suggests the perp could have left by this route (note: I have spoken to folks on the ground in Idaho regarding this new detail — it appears sound).
Now, there could be other reasons for the door being open.
But it is hard to imagine the perp leaving by the front door, then circling back behind the house to ascend to the rear parking lot. Which means: this cuts against the parking lot theory (and against at least part of what I proposed last time).
So: we may have to reconsider (to avoid confirmation bias…!).
The scream: The scream at 0400 hrs also appears to be confirmed. The fact that this ear-witness appears pretty certain that it came from the victims’ house is very strong indication of the time of the attacks.
We’ve discussed here previously that in the 0300 - 0400 hour in which the coroner places the attacks, it seems likely that it would be on the latter half of that: the last call the girls made to Jack DeCouer was 2:56 a.m. Kaylee and Maddy would have to have entered deep REM awfully fast for it to be 0300.
So where does all that leave us?
I see nothing in these new points that undermines the basic premise I posited last time: there was a target; the target’s bed-partner was killed due to that proximity; and the other couple was killed because the perp believed they could identify him somehow (at least in his mind).
We do, however, have to reconsider the perp’s means of ingress and egress. While the front door is very exposed, we have to consider he entered and/or exited that way.
This suggests not only familiarity with the house — but perhaps the notion that he was even invited in.
And recall that in order to exit by the front door, he would have to bypass the doorways of two other potential victims (Bethany and Dylan).
The 0400 scream also narrows the timeline a bit, which could help the data-crunchers in the cyber world (see below).
Having stood in that back parking lot, the front-entrance theory still sticks in my craw. But there is no denying that the open door seems to cut against the rear-parking-lot theory.
As we’ve noted before — a confounding case. Any theory has a counter-factual that can cut against it.
As the task force continues to say it is making progress — and to tell the families the same — we hope they have a lot more to work with than we’ve heard.
I believe they do — and that they will make an arrest. Below is among the reasons why.
CYBER FORENSICS: Your narrator is of the opinion that, barring a break-in-the-case tip, it will be the cyber world that will prove dispostive here. Cyber forensics can be painstaking work, and takes effort and time. But the good news is that it is an area that the FBI excels in.
So: What is the task force likely doing?
The phones: As the nation learned in the San Bernardino terrorism case, it is nearly impossible to “jailbreak” (i.e, hack into) a locked cell phone these days. Steve Goncalves has publicly stated that his family shared passwords, and so the police have achieved at least some access to Kaylee’s phone.
What is less difficult to access — depending on the owner’s settings — is the cloud. This will be a major area of the cyber investigation, and can even be used to track movements, etc.
This is also the best shot at getting text messages — all-important these days.
The WiFi: As per a TikTok video posted by Kaylee, the house appeared to have a WiFi server (most people do these days — esp. college kids). WiFi logs can be captured by a simple search warrant. Depending on the service and router, even devices that did not have the WiFi password may be captured on the WiFi server.
As the task force began to piece together the timeline, I suspect this was one of the indicators for them.
GeoFencing: As has been widely discussed online, a pull of the local cell tower can show what cell phones were active in the area at the time. This is a space where the FBI will be particularly helpful, as the volume of data risks the “paralysis of analysis.”
I don’t know how large the cell area that the house resides in is, so this is why narrowing the timeline is important. Analysts can restrict their window to the most potentially fertile times, and go there first.
Pings on cell towers can also be used to track movement. As in, where the victims were that day (potentially helping with the 5-hour gap in Ethan and Xana’s timeline).
Social Media: The apps on the phones do all sorts of things that, whether you realize it or not, you have agreed to. The investigators will know this.
Also: what IP (internet protocol) addresses hit Kaylee’s TikTok in the weeks leading up to the murders? Maddy’s Instagram? Is there one that shows up repeatedly? Across the spectrum of social media?
Note that all this takes legal process. Search warrants will have to be written, approved, and served. There will then be follow-up legal process. As I said: cyber takes time.
Search Engine Warrants: Consider — did the assailant potentially do a google search of Kaylee or Maddy’s name in the lead-up to the event? A Bing search for their address?
Sounds like a needle in a haystack? I was involved in a murder case in which this — exactly this — was how it was solved.
Laptops: Kaylee’s laptop is visible in one of her TikTok videos. Unless she added extra security, the task force can likely get into that. Depending on the settings, this could yield a lot: searches of her own, forums she was active in, etc. Who knows how the perp became aware of these victims.
Email Accounts: Again, accessible through legal process, depending on the service used.
There are other cyber techniques available to the task force. There is also the financial world (credit cards, Venmo, PayPal, etc) (these days, everything leaves a digital footprint).
These are areas in which I hope Moscow PD has given up some control, and allowed the FBI and Idaho State PD to take the lead.
And as Lawrence Jones and I have discussed: I hope the prosecutor’s office is tight to the investigators. This is where your lawyers are your best allies.
New York Circling the Drain: We’re already running out of room for today’s dispatch, and to recount the latest depradations of NYC’s criminal justice system would take a another (lengthy) post (a bat-wielding perp freed on low bail, an NFL player bailing out a cop-shooter, a prosecutor advocating for the release of a killer he convicted…).
We’re in trouble folks.
But I will end with this astounding video of the NY City Council, which tells you all you need to know about the dynamic in town these days. (I mean: even sex offenders? My God).
Cause for hope: Councilwoman Inna Vernikov is quickly becoming a Mayoral contender. Eric Adams should be hearing footsteps.
We hope you all had a nice weekend…. and we’ll see you later in the week with another dispatch. Until then: Stay safe.