Is Crime Down?
Sure, if the FBI says so...!
So attempting to fend off the perception of rising crime and diminishing quality of life across America, the Dems and their media proxies are pushing the recent FBI report that reportedly shows crime dropping across America.
Is it true?
Let’s look at some of Joe Biden’s recent talking points, currently being parroted by the legacy media:
“Last year the United States had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime in 50 years.”
Verifying this claim is impossible for those who prefer to use the standard metric – that is, the published FBI data – as the official FBI numbers only go back to 1985 (which is 39 years, Mr. President).
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(The President, with Joe Biden) (via wikimedia commons)
So we are left to extrapolate. As most crime analysts like to use murders as the bellwether for violent crime, let’s go with that.
Now, because roughly one-third of the country’s police departments don’t report their numbers to the FBI — jurisdictions like New York, L.A, Baltimore, D.C, and Chicago do not — the FBI report is only a (very vague) estimate. One reliable source — which I trust more than the Bureau on this — posits roughly 18,800 murders as the final nationwide number for 2023.
Now, the FBI doesn’t even give a number in their current report; it just gives a percentage of decline, which it puts at 13.3% for 2023 over 2022. If so, that would bring the FBI nationwide 2023 murder number to 18,363.
Here’s the point: either way, while that is indeed a drop from last year, that is still the highest aggregate murder number since 1996 (which, not coincidentally, is the year “broken windows” policing really began to take hold).
Here’s what the chart looks like, direct from the FBI website:
Further: Even using the lower FBI number, the extrapolated figure of 18,363 murders represents an increase of roughly 12% since the start of 2020 – the year President Biden took office.
If overall violent crime numbers track these murder numbers… this is nothing to boast about. Or to run on.
Now, COVID did indeed skew crime statistics, as we all acknowledge – so wholly blaming Joe Biden for this increase is unfair.
But numbers are numbers, and unequivocal claims based on them must still pass mathematical muster.
And hasn’t the “COVID excuse” begun to get a bit old by now?
“Murder, rape, Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Property Crime, and Theft all dropped sharply.”
As mentioned above, COVID skewed the numbers, and we are still emerging from its shadow. But as the above analysis shows, the welcome news that 2023 will be an improvement over 2022 is hardly an historic achievement. Not when we’re struggling just to get violent crime numbers back to 2019 levels.
Take NYC as an example. Here’s what we look like for the seven major felonies, 2019 -2023:
(source: NY Post)
That’s right – we’re up a full third since “criminal justice reform.”
This also ignores the quality-of-life crimes that the Soros prosecutors are so committed to ignoring, and which are driving down living standards in so many areas (reportedly, as much as 50% of quality-of-life crimes go unreported).
Whether or not it is truly that high, what is undeniable is that the current system has been skewed to incentivize ignoring many quality-of-life infractions.
“Biden Did That”
Joe Biden has made a number of specious claims regarding combating crime – especially in the area of funding.
Here’s his statement from a recent appearance:
Under my “American Rescue Plan,” we provided 350 billion dollars that was available to deal with these issues.” Fact is that we, uh, we find ourselves, they could use it, uh, this money to keep law enforcement on the beat, communities safe from violence. We invested 15 billion dollars to make their communities safer.
This is unclear and unverified, at best.
The $350 billion Biden refers to here is the amount of “flexible” stimulus aid the feds provided to states, counties, and local jurisdictions to use as they chose to – it was not earmarked for law enforcement purposes, to “deal with these issues.”
The $15 billion number appears to refer to some subset of this amount. A direct source for this figure does not appear to exist. The White House briefing sheet itself uses $10 billion for this amount.
Biden Has Been “Working With Law Enforcement”
“You know, since day one, my administration has been working with law enforcement, mayors, and community leaders to do what we know works… and deal with apprehending violent fugitives.”
Unless those “violent fugitives” are illegal migrants, apparently.
We have still not begun to appreciate the effect unchecked illegal migration is having on public safety and order.
Frankly, this administration has no standing on crime and quality-of-life issues until they rectify their insane facilitation of illegal immigration.
“I signed an executive order to advance executive and accountable community policing.”
Whatever he’s signed, it’s clearly not working on the ground — his “Safer America Plan” has had no appreciable effect. And his other main executive order is this area has been the National Law Enforcement Accountability Database, a repository designed to track police misconduct. Which he put under the auspices of Kamala Harris. (You know — the VP who went on Twitter to raise bail for those burning our cities in Summer 2020).
The other main initiative he often name-checks is the passing of the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act – a spate of legislative “reforms” that would turn all of America into downtown Portland.
Funny – he never seems to mention the Protect and Serve Act – a proposal to federalize the murder of police officers, which is currently in Congress.
In light of the fact that he never even acknowledged the murder of NYPD Officer Jonathan Diller, while instead holding that embarrassing pep rally at Radio City… no surprise.
The Dems and the media will continue banging this drum. It’s bad for the country, and they should stop it and do something meaningful.
But at the same time: it’s nothing but great for Donald Trump.
Because thanks to social media and the evidence of their own eyes: the public is not buying it. And they won’t vote for more of the same.
Trust But Verify
Now, if you’re wondering why so many of us are skeptical of the FBI’s report (I know, I know — most of you are not wondering), consider this:
Here’s the NYC murder count, according to the FBI estimate:
That clearly puts the NYC murder number for 2023 at 338.
Now here’s the NYPD count for 2023:
That clearly puts the murder number for 2023 at 391.
That’s a disparity of 53 bodies.
Now as we note, the FBI has to estimate a lot of these numbers b/c major jurisdictions don't report. Yet when they do this estimate, the numbers always seem to skew in favor of the current administration.
Fifty-three bodies? That’s no accounting error.
(For really in-depth analysis of NYC’s crime numbers — including FBI disparities — click here. Much of this will really surprise you).
Morgan Wallen Did What?
So now comes word that country singer Morgan Wallen threw a chair from the sixth floor onto a street in downtown Nashville. Which is certainly not a sentence I ever thought I’d be typing.
(Wallen mugshot — Metro Nashville PD. Not sure the grin was a good idea)
Now, this has got to be among the stupidest acts of celebrity indulgence I’ve ever seen — and if proven, Wallen deserves the three Reckless Endangerment felonies he’s facing (each of which carries up to six years in Tennessee). But here’s the thing.
Has the video been pulled? Most bar/restaurants these days have state-of-the-art video systems — and the joint Wallen was in is brand new. If the video shows Wallen looking over the lip of the terrace and aiming that chair…?
Well then, in light of the fact that the chair reportedly landed just three feet from two cops, the charges should be upgraded to Attempted Murder.
Were I investigating this case, I would be pressing for that video — and also conducting interviews as to any statements Wallen made before or after.
I know Nashville a bit. And those streets get packed with revelers. It’s a miracle no one was hurt.
But a chair intentionally launched from six stories?
And if it was at someone?
Now, decisions on this sort of thing tend to be very local, and who knows what the political atmospherics are in Nashville (Wallen is, after all, a major country star — and Nashville still thrives on that industry).
But I have a suspicion that Nashville PD may not be thrilled that he just missed killing someone. Especially two of their own.
Let’s see if the DA agrees, and goes for jail time. Or even heavier charges.
Urban Doom Loop of The Day
So after an ongoing rash of juvenile crime like carjackings, etc. — particularly in Baltimore — Maryland legislators overwhelmingly passed updated measures for the prosecution of juveniles. The only dissenting voices: legislators from Baltimore.
Understand that as of early this year, Baltimore’s leaders were crowing about an “historic” 20% drop in murders (even as gun crimes continue to spike) for 2023.
Historic!
Some quick math. Baltimore has roughly 1/15th the population of New York City. It recorded 263 murders in 2023. At that “historic” rate, NYC would have seen 3,945 murders.
That is nearly double New York City’s worst year (1990).
I guess we know why they’re not reporting their numbers up to the FBI, huh?
You Thought Fentanyl Was Bad?
According to the BBC: In Sierra Leone, Africa, the main addictive drug is made from… wait for it… human bones, obtained from dug-up cadavers.
The drug, known as “kush,” is made from an amalgam up ingredients, including the bones, and has left Sierra Leone’s streets littered with dying, bloated addicts. The country’s president has declared a state of emergency, calling the situation, “an existential crisis.”
I’m skeptical about how much the ground bones add to the drug’s apparent hallucinogenic effects — and who the hell discovered that particular ingredient anyway? — but things are so bad, the police currently have to patrol the cemeteries.
Click the image below for the video (warning: it’s not pretty).
And finally…
I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry over the image of this judge at the 38:25 mark.
Never mind. I am sure. I’m crying laughing.
What on earth…?
