The Murdaugh Case, Simplified
As we go to the jury, a cheat-sheet of the case's two sides
Point One: I would urge anyone who has not seen it to check out the Netflix show on the Murdaugh case. It is more about the Murdaugh family than the current murder trial. It is… enlightening, even for those who know the case well.
Now, bad character does not mean someone is guilty of murder. BUT: What a family. Holy moley. There are at least five bodies around this crew. And Alex Murdaugh, a supposed pillar of his South Carolina community, was (in police parlance), a real skell.
As of this writing, closing arguments are underway. If the trial interests you, I urge you to see the more detailed analysis of the evidence here, at our website.
What a case. Like a Grisham novel.
But for now: a breakout of the major evidence, for and against.
For The Prosecution
1. The most significant evidence is, as I said when the case started, the VIDEOS on Paul's phone. Most importantly, the one that shows that Alex was at the scene, despite his denials.
2. The judge allowed in the MOTIVE evidence — specifically, Alex’s financial misdeeds. This paints Alex as a liar — and gives him something to hide.
3. The botched suicide attempt. Under South Carolina law, an attempted suicide by the accused can be used as an inference of guilt. To me, this almost assures there won’t be an acquittal.
4. His demolished alibi. Alex claimed to be visiting with his mother around the time of the murders for 40 minutes. His phone and car OnStar show it to be 20 minutes — which his Mom’s caretaker backs up.
The Defense
1. The police mishandled the crime scene. Witnesses testified that they walked through the crime scene the next day, and saw uncollected evidence (including a large piece of Paul’s skull and shotgun pellets). Not a good look for law enforcement.
The police also did not do a great search that night at Alex’s home on the Moselle compound, and it was not until three months later that they searched Alex’s mother’s house — where he says he was visiting that night.
2. The idea that the police are not to be trusted. The defense showed that one of the officers gave contradictory testimony between the grand jury and the actual trial regarding blood spatter (important evidence). This made the cop a liar — which, in a trial, can serve to make all the cops liars.
3. Missing evidence. The two murder weapons — a shotgun and an AR-15-style rifle — have not been recovered. Nor has the clothing that Alex was wearing in the Snapchat video roughly an hour before the murders.
4. The shooter was 5’4”/there were two shooters. According to one forensic expert — whose testimony was pretty compelling — the angle of the shots revealed a shooter who was so much shorter than Alex, it couldn’t have been him. Another compelling defense witness contended that there must have been two different shooters, due to the use of two different guns.
The Mistakes
The Prosecution
Over-focusing on the financials. Prosecutor Waters spent so much time focusing on Alex’s financial skullduggery, the case felt at times like a tax evasion case. He bored us — and likely, the jury.
He also let Alex lead the cross-examination too much — allowing Alex to create fanciful counter-narratives in the jury’s mind’s eye.
The Defense
Two major blunders (and almost three):
The Defense allowed Alex to give three interviews to law enforcement before he was arrested.
Introducing questioning that allowed the botched suicide to come into evidence (it was excluded until then).
At one point, defense attorney Harpootlian got so angry, he barked at the witness, “So do you think he did it?” The witness didn’t answer — and the Defense dodged a bullet. Because if Alex’s law partner had said, “Of course — who else?”… well, that would’ve left a mark.
The Wildcard
Alex took the stand. Did the jury believe him?
Predictions
At this writing, as we near the case’s end, your narrator would vote guilty. But I am predicting, as I have for some weeks now: A hung jury/mistrial.
The state will then re-try the case, asap. And we will have a reprise of this entire thing.
In the media, we will continue to hear about the other deaths surrounding the Murdaugh family. Investigations into two of them have been reopened. Which means: we might get as many as two more Alex Murdaugh murder trials!