Um, What Comes After A Win?
Because winning one of these races may start to look like the easy part
At this point, the electorate either gets it or it doesn’t. And there are a million other columns out there attempting to handicap the races. So let’s take a look instead at some likely repercussions affecting The Ops Desk’s lane.
Let’s start with New York’s Governor — for our money, the big one. While state-level, it has hit the national consciousness hard — and no race is so clearly defined by the crime issue. It’s a bellwether, and results should come in earlier than most other big races.
If Zeldin Wins
Expect him to move quickly to fire Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg “day one,” as promised. Problem is, these are uncharted waters. While Public Officers Law Section 34 remains on the books, it’s not clear it’s ever been used.
Don’t expect Alvin Bragg to go quietly, either. He has his supporters, especially among the progressives who put through the criminal reforms. He will also have plenty of lawyers volunteering to help him mount a federal constitutional challenge.
And as ever, he may well have George Soros to fund it all.
If the canning of Bragg goes through — and I believe it will — the other New York DA’s will get religion fast. We may even see some fare-beating prosecutions!
Of course, there’s the other problem: With Rikers closing, we’ll soon run out of room to house the arrestees. But I spoke to Congressman Zeldin on this (see here), and he has vowed to address the issue (which is far more than we’ve gotten from Hochul).
He’s also vowed to “go big” on quarantining emotionally disturbed, violent homeless who are proven chronic offenders.
(Sounds like New York better lay in a lot of brick and mortar).
As for Zeldin’s promise to declare a “crime emergency” and override the current crime reforms: as I wrote here, this move is more legally murky. So again: expect a battle, as the progressive legislators up in Albany flip their wigs at the undoing of their agenda.
Zeldin clearly has the guts for all this (he’ll need it; the screeching from The NY Times alone will be louder than the F train). What remains to be seen is if he has the legal basis and muscle.
If Hochul Wins
More of the same.
So: If Zeldin wins, expect a big night for the Republicans (even in New York, where several House seats may flip red).
And btw: Here’s what it will look like:
The Republicans Take the Congress
Especially if they take both houses, expect a Republican crime bill. This is tricky.
Many of the issues facing our cities are due to local laws/policies (New York State’s “bail reform,” for instance, or the Illinois SAFE-T Act). Under the American federalist system, it is never easy for the federal government to impose itself on state/local governments. And President Biden will almost certainly veto any Republican crime bill.
What this means: The Republicans will put together their own wish-list legislation, and get the President on-record as opposing it. This will therefore again serve as a campaign point for them in 2024.
The Democrats will focus instead on “guns” — focusing on long guns and AK47’s, while ignoring that long guns accounted for only 4% of gun crimes in the last full year of statistics available (2020).
So: Realistically, the race for 2024 starts Wednesday. And crime will remain a major issue.
The bellwether: Pennsylvania. I’m sorry, but if the Republicans cannot beat a guy who should be — for his own sake and that of his family — in a rehabilitation home, then they’re not going to have the night they want.
Our Brave Media: I know this exchange has been widely viewed as demonstrating Hochul’s limitations — but does it not reveal as much about Stephanie Ruhle?
I mean, you can hear her exasperation in pressing Hochul on taking action against crime in New York. Translation: “Kathy, why can’t you be more like Lee Zeldin?”
But Stephanie: We HAVE a Lee Zeldin! He’s the guy who’s willing to do everything you’re asking Hochul to do. Will you vote for him?
Didn’t think so.
Sure — trust the media. (That said: At least she asked the question…).
Hey, Where Are You Going? So we had eight years of Bill de Blasio’s depredations, culminating in the 2020 “summer of love,” in which entire neighborhoods were looted, vandalized, and burned. With de Blasio and the media all-but cheering it on.
Who could’ve guessed?
What this tells me: NYPD’s staffing numbers are even lower than we believed.
Metaphor Department: It’s not that the jokes write themselves — sometimes you don’t need to write them at all:
See you on the other side of Tuesday. And if you don’t vote… don’t complain!