Update On The Idaho Murders
Because being there does indeed change your perspective
The Idaho case continues to compel. The media seems overrun with talking heads voicing opinions (including me), and all are operating off very thin information. So, to add to the timeline that is up on our website — what can we provide in way of an update from my recent sojourn to Idaho?
As of this past weekend, all of the DNA is not yet back. Perhaps to expedite, the Idaho State PD are handling the DNA.
The digital forensics have been coming back. The official police timeline has been updated, adding an exact new time that Kaylee and Madison returned home (1:56 a.m.). This was likely gleaned from the wifi logs in the house.
The police have access to Kaylee’s phone(s). In Lawrence Jones’s interview with Kaylee’s father, Steve Goncalves revealed that he had gained access to Kaylee’s phone, and provided that to the police. Interestingly, he spoke in the plural — “phones.” Did Kaylee have more than one phone?
A grid search was conducted early on, to search for the weapon. A tracking dog was also deployed.
Moscow PD confirmed that there is nearly a 5-hour gap in the timeline for Ethan and Xana. They were seen at Ethan’s fraternity house from 8:00 - 9:00 pm. They next appear on the timeline at 1:45 a.m, at the crime scene. Lawrence and I walked this route — it takes about two minutes. There are no cameras to be seen.
There is also a gap in the timeline for Kaylee and Madison on Saturday. The two girls don’t have a confirmed appearance until 10:00 pm Saturday night. They were apparently out and about during the day; where, no one seems to know yet (Kaylee’s phone should help).
Madison and Kelly were on the top (third) floor; Ethan and Xana on the second. The two surviving housemates, Dylan and Bethany, were asleep on the first floor.
Other students were “summoned” to the house before the housemates made the 911 call. Because the 911 call came in as a “possible unconscious,” it seems almost certain that no one present had gained entry to the bedrooms until the police arrived. This suggests (a) the immediate crime scenes may not be as “contaminated” as many assert; and (b) the perp locked the door as he left each bedroom.
The police are sticking doggedly to the idea that the attacks were “targeted.”
In his interview with Lawrence, Steve Goncalves indicated he “knows things” that are not public, and that the police know more than they are telling him. The police also state that they are “making progress.”
So what does it all add up to? Anyone who asserts with certainty what occurred is talking out of their hat. I offer only this: I see two buckets, either someone in the victims’ orbit, or the “random serial killer” idea that many are suggesting.
While perhaps not revelatory, due to having been to the location… allow me to take the second idea off the table.
The crime scene house is in a congested area, a sort of rabbit warren of interlocking little streets and driveways. There is student housing piled nearly atop each other, along with some modest, non-student homes.
It’s also a purely residential area, nestled against a hill, surrounded by some wooded patches. The point is, in order to be there, you have to want to be there.
For a random serial killer to know to attack this house — to know there were potential victims there that matched his compulsion — he would have to have scoped it out. That means surveillance — likely for successive days.
Further, this is Idaho. Everyone has guns. He would also have to feel that he wasn’t going to get shot.
So the idea that a serial killer scoped out the house previously also doesn’t hold. Had he been surveiling, it seems quite likely he would’ve been spotted. Even if it wasn’t reported beforehand, someone would remember that “a strange guy has been hanging around.”
There are kids coming and going at all hours, walking their dogs, returning from the bars in town, etc. Taking up an observation post on successive nights — and not getting seen — just doesn’t seem likely to me.
So: We are in bucket one. And that means connections to the victims, somehow.
And that’s why, with DNA, digital forensics, tips from the community — and perhaps some luck — I believe the task force gets there.
Despite the easy “local-yokels-in-over-their-heads” narrative that so many pundits seem committed to.
It’s a battle of wills now, and my money stays on the good guys.
Kudos Dept: Intelligence-led policing, counterterrorism, spycraft, whatever you want to call it — is hard. As I used to say in my old unit (the NYPD Intelligence Bureau), you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince.
And all that kissing generally goes on in the dark. So when something good comes to light — it is worth acknowledging.
While I don’t have intimate details of how this case went… this article has good detail on how the tip came in. And I know well how the NYPD Intelligence Bureau responded. Frankly, they’re the only law enforcement unit I know of that could react with such agility.
This was a great case, that likely prevented a tragedy that would’ve made international headlines. Congrats to them and to the MTA police for running with the intelligence NYPD generated and spotting the perp.
Because the work is preventative, we generally only hear about the “intelligence failures” of intel units and agencies. It’s good to see a success made public.
This is why we pay their salaries, folks.
Shocking! So Alvin Bragg, Manhattan DA, is essentially throwing cases. And just coincidentally… Manhattan crime is skyrocketing!
(source: NY Post)
So: He downgrades over half of the felony cases to misdemeanors… and then he only gets 29% convictions on those.
Which means: Most felonies likely never get to a conviction.
Quoting from Bragg’s “Day One” memo: “Making incarceration a matter of last resort” is “immutable policy.”
Meanwhile, he defends all this by citing the burdens of “discovery reform”… which he supports!
Well Manhattanites voted him in… and they overwhelmingly didn’t vote for Zeldin, who would’ve fired Bragg “day one.”
I’d enjoy the schadenfreude of that if I didn’t live here.
More Schadenfreude: She got 11 years.
BUT: The judge seems to be engineering a remarkably soft landing for her.
Why am I not surprised.
Does anyone do real time anymore?
Guess the schadenfreude is on us. Again.
The Memory Hole: So this guy mows down 25 LA Sheriff’s recruits, and somehow the case sort of… evaporates from the headlines? After the investigators developed probable cause to arrest him?
What the hell happened out there?
There’s something very wrong with this picture.
And they wonder why no one will take the job.
The Memory Hole II: Today is Tuesday, November 29, 2022: And Alec Baldwin is still not charged.
According to this, he should be.
Guilty until proven wealthy….
Another picture with something awry.
While You Were Sleeping: The NYC Council is hard at work making things even worse for the NYPD:
Where do they find these people?
Oh yeah — our education system.
Thanks, teach.
This should simply never happen. A basic of policework is that the cops can’t be terrified to use the force options they have.
It’s another intangible of the current anti-police atmosphere. And as we’ve noted here before, it’s becoming more and more common.
This is amazing video. Wow. Things have really changed out there….
Effective Vigilantism: Gotta say, this is a heckuva shot….
And finally… If ever a picture was worth a thousand words….
(Sigh. We are beyond parody, folks).
Well that’s it for today gang. We’ll see you soon. Meantime: Please stay safe!