Crime Is Down? Don't Believe It
Prepare for a State of the Union snow job
So President Biden reappeared on the law enforcement front last week – something he does every year or so – to let us know that (a) crime is dropping like a stone, and we’re all safer than ever; (b). It’s all due to his COVID stimmie, the American Rescue Plan; and (c) Cops are still out of control, so we need to pass the “George Floyd Justice in Policing” Act.
Consider it a preview of the upcoming State of the Union speech. And it’s a loser.
Now, lucky for Biden, his prepared remarks — given at a D.C. pep rally with the hierarchy of the Detroit PD — were mercifully short. Usually, when a politician speaks, it’s only the crowd that’s in danger of falling asleep.
But those remarks – linked here – were a masterclass in bullshit. Here’s why.
Crime is not down – if you compare it to the years before the “defund” movement. First off, the FBI numbers for last year have not even been tabulated and published yet (they’re generally released late summer/early fall). So who knows what metrics the President was working off of.
But since he cites murders as being down – and murder is generally cited as a bellwether category – let’s examine that. According to this academic source, we are likely on track for a 2023 nationwide murder number of around 18,800. Which means that 2023 will give us the fourth year in a row in which we’ll have murders at a rate we haven’t seen since the 1990s (not coincidentally, right around when “broken windows policing” began to take hold). Here’s the chart:
(source: statista.com)
In other words: Violent crime is only “down sharply” (as Biden puts it) if you compare the numbers to the disasters of the last few years – during which defund, the George Floyd reactions, and Joe Biden’s tenure began.
Now, to be fair, that also tracks COVID’s effects. But whatever weight you give all these factors, crime is only “down” if we compare it to the last few (very bad) years.
Many cities don’t report their numbers to the FBI. New York, for instance, doesn’t report up, due to differences in crime definitions and law.
Does it matter? Well, here’s a snapshot of New York’s year-end 2023 numbers:
(source: New York Post)
As I said: comparing 2023 to 2019, before the perfect storm of defund, decarceration, open borders, poor leadership, and COVID… New York’s in a deep hole.
Things are going so well in New York, in fact, that Governor Hochul is deploying the National Guard to the subways. I didn’t even see that after 9/11.
Biden taking credit for funding the police through his American Rescue Plan (ARP) is an unsupported contrivance. This one is interesting, considering that (a) there are no numbers regarding exactly how much of that plan went to law enforcement, and (b) while the ARP was billed by the White House as providing “direct relief to the American people,” we now know that billions in stimmie funds were stolen. Some programs were defrauded by up to 50%.
Biden wants the George Floyd Justice In Policing Act passed in Congress? While this played to the room at the D.C. event, I’m not sure we’ll hear this from the President at the SOTU. While he was happy to incessantly invoke George Floyd’s name in 2020, I’m not sure Biden’s advisors see leaning back into that as politically expedient now. Not with the pendulum having swung back so far.
What we didn’t hear last week? Laken Riley. Biden pointedly ignored the migrant issue at last week’s event — and in the time since Riley’s death, has yet to publicly say her name.
Can he continue to ignore the border at the SOTU? Doubtful. But chances are, he’ll spend most of the time blaming the Republicans for shooting down the Senate’s proposed border bill. A bill which brings to mind Dorothy Parker’s famous one-sentence book review: “This is not a novel to be tossed aside lightly. It should be thrown with great force.”
The SOTU will be the usual political theater — the Dems will applaud like mad for their guy, the Republicans will stay seated and glower, and there may be some disruptions.
But on the crime and security issues, I’m not sure we’ll get much that actually matters. Expect to be told everything is going great.
In other words: gaslighting-as-usual.
And at this point, for this president: that’s not nearly enough.
Two Video Quickies from over at the website:
Fani awaits her fate…
And Girtz may lose his shirtz….
And finally…
Transit crime is down?
Dude, you just asked for the National Guard!
The democrats have caused sky high violent crime rates to happen by implementing these six policies.
First: No cash bail, the criminal that raped, robbed, looted or murdered will be out on the street before the police officer can even start the paper work.
Second: Defunding the police, fewer cops to keep law and order puts the criminals in charge of the streets.
Third: To get even more cops off the force the vaccine mandates is coming back for all police. Even if the officer had and recovered from Covid and has 27 times the protection that a vaccine could offer that must get the jab or be fired.
Fourth: Democrats have made it clear to everyone that they have a laissez faire attitude to violent crime. They really don’t care if people, little people to them, are raped, stabbed, shot, robbed or murdered they have private security.
Fifth: The Democrat DA’s have made a point not to prosecute any violent crime or plea bargain it down the case to a something less than a slap on the wrist.
Six: The release of one third to all the convicted armed robbers, rapist and murders in prison to go out and do more rapes, robberies and murders.
Business in New York City have told their people not to dress too well or wear anything expensive, gold or diamond bracelets, engagement rings, Rolex Watches, or any other valuables because they will be robbed on the street and the police or city government can do absolutely nothing to stop it. The LA police have confirmed that they have the same crime problem and similar inability to protest common citizens. This warning needs to be extended to all blue cities; they all have this same level of lawlessness. Violence and crime outside the door in these democrats run cities is so bad that people that live or even visit there are afraid that they are going to be the next crime statistic. See the case of Bob Lee.
Even if all cities reported the statistics to the Gestapo you still would not be able to believe anything coming out of that cesspool of fascist pigs.