The Debate: What Will Trump Say On Crime?

And what SHOULD he say?

So tonight is the big debate – and forgive my skepticism, but I suspect it will be the only debate.  So on the issue of public safety, what can we expect?

BIDEN: Joe will claim that we have “the lowest crime levels in 50 years” and he will cite percentage drops since last year.  Here’s the problem with these claims (which he has been making since the FBI released their “preliminary” crime numbers for 2023):

Many cities don’t report.  Roughly one-third of cities don’t report their crime numbers to the FBI.  Many major, high-crime jurisdictions, including New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, and New Orleans, simply do not participate in the program. 

For those cities that don’t report, the FBI estimates the numbers.

Aside from the inherent inaccuracy of that, here’s the problem. Here are the FBI’s murder numbers for NYC, compared to the NYPD numbers. Historically, they’ve always matched. Notice anything?

(chart courtesy whitecollarfraud.com)

I don’t understand the discrepancy — the definitions the two agencies use for “murder” has not changed. And suddenly they’re off 44% for the first quarter of this year?

Funny how these discrepancies have begun to favor the Biden administration’s narrative.

It is not at all clear where Biden is getting this “50 years” number.  Here is a chart, from the FBI’s own crime data website, of violent crime levels in America, going back as far as the online system goes (1985 — which is 39 years):

As such, I don’t know where Biden’s metric for this “50 years” claim comes from.  He says it all the time, but somehow never explains it.

2023 saw the highest national murder number since 1996.  In an effort to try to understand this “50 years” thing, I tried tracking murder — which is generally the metric crime analysts use as the most reliable. 

If, as we’re told, the FBI estimate for 2023 is a murder number of approximately 18,617 (that is, a drop of 12%), it is still the highest murder number since 1996 (not coincidentally, right around when broken-windows policing really began to take hold).

Again, as per the feds’ own numbers:

(Chart as per statista.com)

Claiming 2023 was a standout in public safety is rather like saying you’re better falling from the 15th floor than the 20th.

Quality-of-life crimes are not tracked by the FBI.  The misdemeanor crimes destroying living conditions across the nation are not tracked by the FBI.  Therefore, Biden cannot cite them.

It’s tough to believe disorder is decreasing when a homeless guy carrying cartons of stolen cigarettes is blocking the sidewalk and screaming in your face. 

And when this has become a daily occurrence.

TRUMP: Trump could cite any of the above – and I hope he does.  But let’s go by what he’s done before, as he has taken to citing a crime report that is really startling. 

The Bureau of Justice Statistics is a federal agency whose only job is compiling and analyzing crime numbers – it’s what they do.  This agency issues a report called, “The Annual Crime Victimization Survey” (here’s the link). 

As we have up on the opsdesk.org website, here’s their chart for violent crime in America, by year:

As you can see, in 2021, according to crime victims themselves, violent crime began its climb.  That would be the year Joe Biden took office, unleashed a wave of unvetted migration on us, when he started pushing a National Law Enforcement Accountability Database, when he began voicing support for the ludicrous George Floyd Justice In Policing Act, and when he remained silent on The Protect And Serve Act, which would federalize targeting law enforcement officers. 

We note that the above chart is as per the most recent analysis done by Biden’s own federal government. 

Here’s something else Trump could cite. Here’s the FBI’s chart on Property Crimes:

Again, more quality-of-life stuff that Biden chooses to ignore. Notice what year it began to bounce up?

And a last thing Trump could cite is this: as per the Fraternal Order of Police, the nation’s largest police union, last year saw the highest number of police officers shot since they began collecting data. 

Now why would that be?

Perhaps a newfound disrespect for all traditional institutions, including law enforcement, abetted by government rhetoric, media pandering, and marxist academics? 

Nah.

---

---

Alejandro Mayorkas – Worst Cop Ever

Your narrator appeared recently on-air at Fox with the ever-sharp Martha MacCallum to discuss DHS Secretary Mayorkas’s recent presser, which was a masterclass in obfuscation and evasion. 

The news comes at us so fast these days, it’s easy to forget past deeds by some of our public officials.  Here, then, is snippet from a substack I wrote last year, on when Mayorkas really introduced the American public to what he is about:

At a September 2021 press conference, Mayorkas supported President Biden’s contention that border agents on horseback “whipped” Haitian migrants.

Folks, this simply never happened.

But worse: Emails revealed late last year showed that Mayorkas knew at the time that the claim was false.

No wonder his own agents hate him.

By pretty much any metric, this guy’s a disgrace.

Nothing’s changed.

---

Why Are They Doing It?

So why is all this going on?  Why are our current leaders so hell-bent on flooding the nation with unvetted illegals, among whom are clearly some percentage of hardened criminals that foreign governments want to rid themselves of?

Could it be this?

If the left thought these 11 million — which is likely twice that, btw — were going to vote for Republicans, the Rio Grande would be filled with piranhas.

---

---

And finally….

Sometimes, you just need to laugh.

Thanks, Daily Wire. We needed that.

See you at the debate!

---